Diplomatic Tensions Rise Among East African Countries; Will Ruto win following Museveni/Suluhu win?

Political tensions rise in East Africa

Kampala — In East Africa’s Tanzania and Uganda, political tensions are rising as they prepare for the next elections. Tanzania goes to the polls in October 2025, while Uganda’s presidential and general elections will take place early in 2026.

In both countries, the leading political leaders, Tundu Lissu of the Chadema party in Tanzania and Dr. Kizza Besigye, a former leader of the once largest opposition party, are under detention facing treason charges.

Political and civil actors in the two countries and their neighbor Kenya say a wave of repression is sweeping across the region and that democracy and civil liberties are dying across East Africa.

Civil actors have reported numerous cases of torture, abductions, and general human rights abuses that have shrunk civic spaces.

On 10 April 2025, Lissu was charged with treason, along with three offenses of publication of false information under cybercrime laws. The charges are connected to his nationwide campaign pushing for electoral reform under the slogan “No Reforms, No Election.” He appeared in court this week (June 16) and was granted permission to represent himself because, he argued, he was denied access to private consultations with his lawyers.

Shortly after Lissu’s arrest, Chadema was disqualified from the October 2025 presidential and parliamentary elections, based on the party’s refusal to sign an electoral code of conduct.

Lissu narrowly survived an assassination attempt in 2017 and was forced into exile, only to face renewed persecution upon his return to Tanzania.

In the run-up to the November 2024 local elections, Tanzania’s government has impeded opposition meetings, arbitrarily arrested hundreds of opposition supporters, imposed restrictions on social media access and banned independent media.

Four government critics were forcibly disappeared and one Chadema official was abducted and brutally killed.

Forced Deportations, Allegations of Torture

On May 19, when Lissu was returning to the court, authorities in Tanzania ordered the deportation of Kenya’s former Justice Minister, Martha Karua, and Dr. Willy Mutunga, the former Chief Justice of Kenya, together with a couple of journalists from Kenya.

They had traveled to Tanzania under the invitation of the East Africa Law Society. Further, a Kenyan human rights activist, Boniface Mwangi, and a Ugandan activist, Agather Atuhaire, were arrested and held incommunicado for five days despite protests. The two activists said they were badly tortured by Tanzanian police and security operatives.

Atuhaire told IPS that she was blindfolded and sexually molested by her captors, who had driven her and Mwangi out of the Central Police Station in Tanzania.

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has been re-elected to a seventh term, the country’s electoral commission has announced, after a tense campaign marked by an opposition crackdown and internet blackout.

Museveni, 81, won with 71.65 percent of the vote, the commission said on Saturday.

Tanzanian authorities on Saturday declared incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the country’s presidential election with an overwhelming 97.66% of the vote, extending her rule for a second term.

Jacobs Mwambegele, head of the Independent National Electoral Commission, on Saturday morning announced the victory of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party candidate on state-run TV, saying: “As per the Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, I hereby announce Samia Suluhu Hassan as the winner.”

Mwambegele said Samia secured over 31.9 million votes out of 32.7 million cast in Thursday’s polls.

The polls were marred by reports of violence, opposition boycotts, and widespread disruptions to online access.

The UN Human Rights Office said at least 10 people were killed in clashes between security forces and demonstrators following the announcement of results.

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